Ozone Modeling:
Preliminary Model Performance Evaluation
An initial statistical analysis has been done to determine if the modeling results developed by the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) would be applicable to the Uintah Basin in eastern Utah. While this performance evaluation is not yet complete, the results are promising and it appears that these model estimates of ozone formation in the intermountain region will provide a useful analytical tool for the Airshed Management Workgroup.
The air quality model known as the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model, or CMAQ, has been used been used for visibility modeling by the WRAP since the late 1990’s. Their emphasis has primarily been on the modeling of aerosols and fine particulates, however, the model includes a full photochemistry module and provides estimates of ozone concentrations in the model results.
Since the first set of modeling runs were completed for visibility plans that were delivered in 2003 many improvements have been made in refining the model. These include better estimation of the meteorological inputs and improved emissions inventories. The model results presented here use a 12 kilometer grid scale resolution and used the first inventories to include emissions estimates for the oil and gas inventory.
The following data sets are currently available here:
- Model Performance Evaluation (MPE)
- Model Sub-Domain
- Visualization of Ozone Formation on July 5-6, 2002
Future Work
- Analysis of VOC/NOx Ratios in Limiting Ozone Production
- Emissions Inventories
- Biogenics
- Oil and Gas
- Other VOC and NOx Sources
- Use of WRAP 2018 Projection Modeling at 36 km Resolution
